Gartner Inc. expects that the investment industry, integrated circuits (ICs) reduced by 25, 7% in 2008, and 12, 8% in 2009 and then grow by 16, 7% in 2010. Gartner lowered forecast capital expenditure against the backdrop of global economic slowdown and oversupply in the memory chip.
The reduction of investment covers all segments and will continue throughout 2008 and 2009. Surplus of memory, coupled with low turnover, caused by the unstable economic situation that leaves the hope of redressing the situation until early 2010. Bob Johnson (Bob Johnson), one of the analysts who prepared the forecast, calls it the decline of investment in 2008-m for the largest chip industry since 2002, when total expenditure decreased by 35% after the 30-percent drop in 2001.
The long-term assessment shows that global investment of about $ 33, 5 billion in 2008 and $ 30, 5 billion in 2009. The industry did not reach the level of 2007 on investments ($ 44, 7 billion) by the end of 2012, adds Gartner. Previously, Gartner has established a forecast reduction in capital investment at 19, 8% for 2008. But in July, he was reduced to 22, 4%. Revenues segment production of substrates will decline to 26, 1% in 2008 and 11, 9% for 2009. Also expected to decline in the segment of assembly and packaging by 18% (2008), but in 2009 will experience growth of 1%. A test equipment industry will collapse by 26, 7% this year and grow by 5% in the next.
While the market for IP reduces costs in response to a long recession, manufacturers of finished products adjust their delivery, focusing on reducing demand. Also, industry needs a major mergers and acquisitions. The industry is ready for consolidation, not only in the production of memory, but also in the consumer sector and among companies without their own production facilities - said Johnson.
The supply of chips will grow in 2008 by 10%, but declining prices will not increase revenue to exceed 4%. The long-term upward trend in semiconductor market a few percent a year is likely to continue. Revenues and expenditures industry chips recover in the second quarter of 2009 th, but the decline in the first quarter will affect the picture of the year.
The increase in income sector of memory stalled until 2012, despite growth in sales and investment in the capital, said Gartner. Revenue DRAM, is expected to decline by 44% in 2008 and by 14% in 2009. Revenue NAND reduced by 23% and 22% respectively. It is also expected that investments in productive capacity will fall by 29% in 2008 and 15% in 2009. Costs continue to remain low, although the competition for the various innovations will become more stringent.
At the end of last month, Needham and Co. lowered its forecast investment in 2009, increasing the size of the fall of 2, 5% to 16, 1%. Last week, SEMI also lowered the forecast decline in investment from 5% to 10% in 2009. In 2008 the company expects a 20 per cent drop.